You make some good points NGM - and it will be interesting to see what happens.
My point is that VoIP is like email in that it is totally FREE (apart from the internet connection). Even when you call a normally POTS number via VoIP it can be free.
1. VoIP to VoIP calls are free. And as peering arrangements between providers, and the ability to dial URL VoIP address on more sophisticated and dedicated VoIP IP hardware and software phones becomes more prevalent, then a worldwide VoIP network will develop. (Most likely based on SIP - folks like Skype will either die out or move to SIP).
2. A number of worldwide "lookup" databases to link POTS numbers to their associated VoIP address are now coming online. Some such as enum work at the teleco level (allowing providers to charge for a call that is free to them); but others will work at the user level. These databases (effectively DNS lookup for VoIP), mean that if I dial a POTS number a search will be made for an associated VoIP address - and that will be used to place a free call - if such an address exists.
3. The cost of VoIP calls that breakout into the POTS work are already coming down. Providers such as Broadvoice.com charge just $20 for unlimited calls to over 24 countries. And some providers such as voipbuster.com give free POTS calls to a range of countries (but how long this will last for remains to be seen). Of course just like email you can have multiple VoIP accounts and just select the best one for your current call.
4. There will be an explosion of VoIP use as combined WiFi VoIP/Mobile phones and pure WiFi VoIP (VoWLAN) phones come online. This is all linked to the broadband/WiFi/WiMAX rollout.
5. VoIP is going to be totally integrated into web browsers and applications. This is already happening. VoIP softphones will be built into browsers and/or the URL of VoIP hardphones will be linked to active URL VoIP address on webpages - just like your email program is linked to email URLs. So just as now you click on an email link and your email program opens with the destination email address opens; so you will click on a VoIP URL and your soft/hard phone will dial the VoIP number.
6. VoIP providers are getting more and more wary about allowing access to any premium rate or NGN POTS numbers worldwide. This is because they are falling prey to scammers who use abritage to make millions. (Even normal POTS telcos fall prey to this). They are also limiting access as they cannot keep track of all the differing charges worldwide. Or they are massively marking-up such calls.
My Broadvoice account allowed unlimited calls to 0870 and 0845 for 5 months until they got the bill from Global Crossing!!!! So as folks move over to pure VoIP their access to NGN numbers will decrease.
7. It's possible that specialist VoIP providers will develop giving access to premium rate and NGN numbers - but they charge an excess. Plus you will be fully aware that you are making a chargeable call.
8. Most call centres; large corps and gov departments already have pure VoIP internal networks. So it will be technically possible for them to switch to VoIP for incoming calls. You can buy VoIP servers that can handle thousands of VoIP calls for a couple of thousand dollars ("Asterisk" VoIP sw is free). And bandwith cost is coming down.
Now at present users are fooled into calling 0870 number etc... as the believe they are just paying a "normal" phone call rate.
BUT with the expansion of VoIP, users will start to expect that they should pay NOTHING for ANY phone call to ANYWHERE. And as VoIP becomes easier and more ubiquitous SOME companies will start to give out VoIP numbers and VoIP URL addresses.
Slowly but surely the wheels of free market capitalism will grind and companies will use VoIP to differentiate themselves and grab consumers who are VoIP aware. How will companies NOT be able to have a VoIP URL that the consumer will be able to click on and instantly connect to a call centre?
This is not "we'll call you back" buttons where you enter your telephone number. This is instant connection. I have already trialed such a system on one of my own companies webpage. Customers clicked on a button and then heard me talking to them via their computer's speakers and microphone. THEY ARE GOBSMACKED!
) They don't even need to have a VoIP soft/hardphone or even know what VOIP is.
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